NCAAF Bowls: Best bets for the Jan. 1 non-CFP games

New Year's Day bowl games are now a combination of really important (the College Football Playoffs) and a mish-mash. I am not sure how the Tigers or Badgers — see below — even qualified.

Here is a quick look at the appetizers before the playoffs later in the day.

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl
LSU Tigers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Noon ET
Best Bet: Badgers +9.5

LSU was awesome on offense this season. That was when quarterback Jayden Daniels was directing the attack though, and he and top target receiver Malik Nabors are sitting this one out. I do not doubt that their backups are at a level that they could start for other programs but it is hard to see their offense as plug-and-play and their defense has been a problem all season. 

Wisconsin had a mediocre first season under head coach Luke Fickell. The program is in a tough spot too with the additions to the Big Ten leaping over them in the pecking order. They can play defense, holding teams to under 20 ppg, but until they figure out what sort of offensive team they want to be, and get good at it. Success is going to be hard to come by. 

Wisconsin is not what it used to be! Nevertheless, I have a hard time believing the Tigers, with reserves scattered throughout their offense, can just roll right over them and win by 10. The Badgers will have to find some offense somewhere, but playing one of the most porous defenses in the nation will help tremendously.

More: No. 13 LSU, minus Jayden Daniels, turns page to face Wisconsin

Citrus Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes  vs. Tennessee Volunteers
1 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Hawkeyes +6.5

Iowa won 10 games this season, again. We know how they do it, even if it is not very exciting to watch. They have already dealt with the offensive coordinator situation, though you have to wonder if they might try and produce some fireworks, just because at this point. Either way, betting on Iowa’s defense to show up is one of the surest things in the game.

As for Tennessee, they had a disappointing season after last year’s emergence. Quarterback Joe Milton was unable to translate his physical gifts into production as Hendon Hooker did before him and the Vols stumbled against the best teams on their schedule. Now they are going to be running out a freshman quarterback against one of the best defenses in the nation.

You do not have to be a fan of how Iowa plays to appreciate them. I could see making the Vols the favorite if Milton was going to play, but without him, I am worried they can sustain offense enough to win by a touchdown, even against a team that struggles offensively like Iowa. Iowa gave up more than 20 points to an opponent just twice all season. I can ride with that.

More: Iowa sets sights on Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee in Citrus Bowl

Fiesta Bowl
Oregon Ducks vs. Liberty Flames
1 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Flames +16.5

Liberty ran roughshod over its schedule this season. They went 13-0 and only once was the opponent within a touchdown. Now, of course, that was without facing any significant opponent, though still very impressive. We now get a chance to see just how they can compete as Oregon is as talented as any team in the country.

Oregon had a great season, they just had a Washington problem, losing to the rival Huskies twice, by three points each time. The Ducks are a strong program but it is easy to question their motivation in this spot. They were so very close to the playoffs and even though they are playing on New Year’s Day, a date with Liberty is not what they had in mind. They have done great in the transfer portal but I worry they might not be focused enough to dominate on Monday. They seem to already be looking ahead to 2024.

This is a large spread. I would have backed Oregon for sure if this was midseason but in this spot, I just worry that a little sloppiness by the Ducks and some extra motivation from the Flames make this a ho-hum 10-point win by the Ducks. Even that might be a moral victory for a program like Liberty. Their continuity and motivation are high, now we just have to see how they match up.