NBA player props: Expert Picks for Josh Giddey and Nikola Jokic for Sat. 4/27

Pelicans vs. Thunder Player Props

Saturday, April 27, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Josh Giddey Over 3.5 Assists (-125, BetRivers)

The OKC Thunder protected their home court and will look to take a commanding 3-0 lead against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. The Thunder are 1.5-point road favorites after beating the Pelicans by 32 points in Game 2.

Thunder combo guard Josh Giddey is the player we are targeting tonight. He has taken a step back in his third year with the team due to the emergence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. However, he is still averaging a respectable 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. In this matchup, Giddey's over 3.5 assists is one of the best props in our Prop model. The versatile guard is projected to record 5.3 assists tonight.

In the first two games despite playing only 20 and 29 minutes, Giddey captured three assists in both contests. His potential assists have dropped in the playoffs after averaging 7.5 per game during the regular season. Expect variance to find its level tonight. Giddey ended the regular season capturing four or more assists in 16 of his last 21 games.

The Pelicans have the sixth-best defensive rating in the league but have struggled limiting opposing guards' assists. They are allowing 26.8 assists per game this season, which is below average defensively in the league. A big reason why is their lack of perimeter defense. Opponents are attempting 38.7 3-pointers per game against them, which is the second-highest mark in the league. After shooting 33% from the field and 20% from behind the arc in the first two games, Giddey will likely rather find his open teammates from long distance than make his own attempts.

Giddey has been under this line in back-to-back games by the hook, but this is a great matchup for him to get back on track. He is projected to play over 25 minutes and have a 22% usage rate. Give me the over on Giddey's dimes.

Pick: Josh Giddey Over 3.5 Assists (-125 | DraftKings)

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Lakers vs. Nuggets Player Props

Saturday, April 27, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-135, DraftKings)

Looking to win their 12th consecutive game against the Los Angeles Lakers and close out this first-round series, the Denver Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites implied for a slate-high 110.75 points. The Lakers have held substantial leads in every game of this series, but the Nuggets have rallied to take a 3-0 lead and will look for another sweep tonight.

To no one's surprise, Nikola Jokic has looked incredible. The favorite to win MVP for the third time in his career, Jokic is averaging 27.7 points, 15.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists while shooting 63.5% from the field in this series. For Game 4, we are targeting Jokic's over 12.5 rebounds, which feels way too low. He had 12 rebounds in Game 1 but followed that up with 20 rebounds in Game 2 and 15 in Game 3. Jokic has dominated the paint in this matchup.

Despite having Anthony Davis and LeBron James playing more games than normal, the Lakers ranked 21st in rebounding percentage this season at 49.6%. Jokic leads all players in the postseason in rebounds per game and was fourth during the season. In a close-out game, expect nothing less than domination from the Joker on the glass.

Our prop model has Jokic projected to haul down 14.4 rebounds, which is well over his prop line on the DraftKings sportsbook. There are sportsbooks that have this line set at 13.5 with juice to the over so be sure to shop around.

DraftKings is offering one alt line that I also love. That would be Jokic to record 15+ rebounds at +145. He has captured that total in back-to-back games. Take his over 12.5 rebounds at -135 and a sprinkle at the alt line of 15+ rebounds. Jokic will have no trouble cleaning up the glass against the Lakers frontcourt that has mailed it in.

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-135 | DraftKings)